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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-12T19:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14748/-1
CME Note: There is no clear signature arrival for this specific CME. The arrival attributed to the 2019-05-13T16:09Z CME is also very weak and difficult to be certain about it.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T10:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2019-05-13T03:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 480 km/s
Longitude (deg): 13E
Latitude (deg): 14S
Half-angular width (deg): 30 deg

Notes: Difficult to analyse with the CAT tool output sensitive to longitude and half angle. Estimated speeds varied between 400 and 600 km/s, but settled approximately on the mean. The Ensemble suggests an error margin of approx plus or minus 9 hours.
Space weather advisor: AMS

Lead Time: 69.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2019-05-13T12:30Z

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